Growing Old in the Future

This publication represents the report of the Scenario Committee on Ageing. The draft report was discussed with a wide range of experts, inter alia during the symposium 'Growing Old in the Future' held on October 27th, 1984. In addition to the scenario report, a background report containing the basic analysis employed in the scenarios on ageing has been prepared. The scenario report has been written in such a way that it can be read independently of the background study. Scenarios are a relatively new phenomenon in health care and related policy. For this reason it might be useful to furnish the reader with a few suggestions. As a first step, perusing the summary will provide the reader with an ~verall picture of this application of the scenario method in policy preparation and policy implementation in the sector health of the elderly. As a second step, we would recommend that the scenario report be read in its totality. It might be useful to note down points on which the reader would like to make additions or variations.

Summary. - 1 Introduction. - 1. 1 Background. - 1. 2 Design and course of the scenario project on ageing. - 1. 3 Taking a further look at scenarios. - 1. 4 Design of the report. - 2 Scenario A: The reference scenario. - 2. 1 Introduction. - 2. 2 Demographic developments. - 2. 3 The state of health of the elderly. - 2. 4 Social developments. - 2. 5 The demand for (health) care facilities. - 2. 6 The economic context. - 3 Medical and medical-technological developments. - 3. 1 Introduction. - 3. 2 Expectations with respect to medicine and pharmacology. - 3. 3 Expectations with respect to technology. - 3. 4 Towards a second medical revolution? . - 3. 5 Expectations with respect to cell biology. - 3. 6 Concluding remarks. - 4 Scenario B: Increasing growth in demand for facilities. - 4. 1 Introduction. - 4. 2 Social developments as they affect the health situation. - 4. 3 Consequences for facilities. - 4. 4 The economic context. - 5 Scenario C: Decreasing growth in demand for facilities. - 5. 1 Introduction. - 5. 2 Social developments as they affect the health situation. - 5. 3 Developments relating to facilities for the elderly. - 5. 4 The economic context. - 6 Disturbing developments. - 6. 1 Introduction. - 6. 2 Postponement of dementia. - 6. 3 Extreme decrease in intergenerational solidarity. - 6. 4 Intersecting developments in relation to the scenarios. - 7 Application possibilities for scenarios. - 7. 1 Introduction. - 7. 2 Scenarios as `learning environments . - 7. 3. Scenarios and health care facilities for the elderly. - 7. 4 A closer look at putting the scenario report to active use. - 7. 5 Concluding remarks. - Appendices.