Arab Revolution in the 21st Century?

Manuscript: Arab Revolution in the Making? By Nader Fergany

This is a work that would appeal most to an academic readership because it sets out to analyse the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia from a social scientist's perspective and on the basis of a theoretical framework. It would also be of interest to professionals dealing with the Middle East in, say, the fields of diplomacy or commerce, who would benefit from a deeper understanding of the causes and possible outcome of the uprisings. While the ordinary reader might be put off by the academic jargon and the graphs and tables, the thrust of the book would help explain the failures of the uprising that are reported in headline terms only in the mainstream media.

The manuscript breaks new ground among literature in English on the Arab uprisings in two aspects: it provides a global and historical context by applying existing theories on revolution to the events in the Middle East; and it is an unashamedly partisan and passionate assessment by a leading Egyptian academic and human rights campaigner. But the chronicling of the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia is weak and has been done better in several published works.

The beginning of the book is strong - for example, the author's comments on the lack of a class structure in the Arab world, the impoverishment of the middle classes and the seven stages of evolution of Arab uprisings. The author's comments towards the end on the need for societal reform, and so on, are also interesting and would be of value to those seeking answers to the questions of how the Arab world might evolve in the post-uprising era. But the central part of the manuscript is weak and sloppy, giving the impression that it has been written in haste without sufficient attention to detail or the avoidance of repetition. The author is assuming too much knowledge on the part of the reader. For example, on page 31 he mentions that Mubarak appointed a vice president and a new prime minister, but names neither. This failure to provide names and precise dates is repeated many times later in the manuscript. On page 35 he asserts that Saudi Arabia 'and other GCC states' intervened in Bahrain. In fact it was only one other GCC state, the UAE. On page 37 he refers for the first time to Sisi ('al Sisi, now field marshal') without his full name or any explanation of his background.

The biggest disappointment lies in the author's failure to relate the events of the uprisings and their aftermath to the theories outlined at the start of the book - pointing out the extent to which the seven stages of evolution had or had not been achieved. It was disappointing, too, not to have more observations from the author based on his own experience as an Egyptian who witnessed the uprising in his country. I recommend a revision of the narrative section of the manuscript, providing much more detail of names and dates, and references to the theoretical framework.