"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but-better-that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz's book." -Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life-bottom-line numbers, for instance-but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories-scenarios-and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
The Strategic Conversation -
Broadening the Long View;
The Pathfinder's Tale;
The Smith & Hawken Story: The Process of Scenario-Building;
The Scenario-Building Animal;
Uncovering the Decision;
Information-Hunting and Gathering;
Creating Scenario Building Blocks;
Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager;
Composing a Plot;
The World in 2005: Three Scenarios;
Rehearsing the Future;
Epilogue: To My Newborn Son;
Afterword: The Value of Strategic Conversation;
User's Guide: How to Hold a Strategic Conversation;
Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenarios.
